President Donald Trump’s approval rating has been trending upward ahead of the 2018 midterms, and that should bode well for Republican candidates. Rasmussen’s daily Presidential tracking poll puts Trump’s approval at 48 percent today, higher than Obama at the same point during his Presidency.
Furthermore, the RNC has vastly out-fundraised the DNC. The RNC raised $157.7 million so far this year and has $42.4 million in cash on hand. By contrast, the DNC has raised just $79 million in total over the same period, and just $10.1 million in cash on hand.
We reported last week that Trump’s approval among black men doubled in one week after the rapper Kanye West expressed support for him. While it’s unclear if that was the cause for the sudden uptick in support among black men, black support for Trump overall is crossing into a “danger zone” for Democrats.
While 16 percent support for Trump seems low, blacks generally vote for Democrats by larger margins in national elections. For instance, Mitt Romney only got 7 percent of the black vote. Trump received a similar share, eight percent. Sixteen percent approval represents a doubling of Trump’s approval among black voters.
Marist’s March 19-21 approval for Trump among black Americans was 6 percent; 17 percent were unsure, and 77 percent disapproved. The Quinnipiac poll, which is consistently negative to Trump, on March 21 found black approval at 11 percent, “Don’t Know” at 4 percent, and disapproval at 84 percent. Taken in the aggregate, the three polls have Trump’s approval at 11 percent, at 12 percent for not sure or don’t know, and disapproval at 77 percent. Again, while the negatives are high, the positives are higher than is typical for Republicans, and if black Americans vote in accord with these approval ratings it would be easily enough to tip a tight election.
In all, this would mean hundreds of thousands fewer votes for Democrats in a Presidential election if these trends hold, and some of the effects could be seen in the midterms.